Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2024 Mar 28 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 28-Mar 30 2024 is 2.67 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 28-Mar 30 2024
Mar 28Mar 29Mar 30
00-03UT2.002.672.67
03-06UT1.332.002.33
06-09UT2.002.332.00
09-12UT1.672.332.33
12-15UT1.002.331.33
15-18UT1.332.331.00
18-21UT1.332.332.33
21-00UT1.332.672.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 28-Mar 30 2024
Mar 28Mar 29Mar 30
S1 or greater30%30%10%

Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over the next two days due to the flare potential for Region 3615. Probabilities decrease slightly for 30 Mar as Region 3615 rotates beyond the western limb.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Mar 28 2024 0629 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 28-Mar 30 2024
Mar 28Mar 29Mar 30
R1-R275%75%40%
R3 or greater25%25%10%

Rationale: Due to the flare potential of Region 3615, R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3 (Strong), over the next two days. Probabilities decrease slightly for 30 Mar as Region 3615 rotates beyond the western limb.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SOHO EIT 304
Click for time-lapse image of the sun
SOHO EIT 284
SOHO EIT 284 image of the sun
Mauna Loa Coronal Intensity
Latest Mauna Loa image of the Sun

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere. COMP CORONAL INTENSITY The COronal Multi-channel Polarimeter (CoMP) observes the Fe-XIII emission line at 1074.7 nm to measure the coronal magnetic field and obtain plasma density and motion in the low corona from ~1.03 to 1.5 solar radii.

Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Images of the solar corona
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO).
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.


Space Weather Overview
Graph showing Real-Time Space Weather Overview
These plots show the current Space Weather Overview.


Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Southern hemispheric power input map

This is a short-term forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora. This product is based on the OVATION model and provides a 30 to 90 minute forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora. The forecast lead time is the time it takes for the solar wind to travel from the L1 observation point to Earth.

The two maps show the North and South poles of Earth respectively. The brightness and location of the aurora is typically shown as a green oval centered on Earths magnetic pole. The green ovals turn red when the aurora is forecasted to be more intense. The sunlit side of Earth is indicated by the lighter blue of the ocean and the lighter color of the continents. Aurora can often be observed somewhere on Earth from just after sunset or just before sunrise. The aurora is not visible during daylight hours. The aurora does not need to be directly overhead but can be observed from as much as a 1000 km away when the aurora is bright and if conditions are right.

The aurora is an indicator of the current geomagnetic storm conditions and provides situational awareness for a number of technologies. The aurora directly impacts HF radio communication and GPS/GNSS satellite navigation. It is closely related to the ground induced currents that impact electric power transition.

For many people, the aurora is a beautiful nighttime phenomenon that is worth traveling to arctic regions just to observe. It is the only way for most people to actually experience space weather.

In 2020, NOAA SWPC implemented the new version of the OVATION Prime model into operations. This version has been dubbed OVATION 2020.

The Auroral Forecast product is based on the OVATION Prime model developed by P. Newell at the Johns Hopkins, Applied Physics Laboratory.


VHF and HF Band Conditions







Credits:

Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA).

Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images

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